Backtestwizard.com is the blog of Llewelyn James, the best-selling author of 2 books:

The Honest Guide To Stock Trading”   

The Honest Guide To Candlestick Patterns”

The blog is where Llewelyn publishes other systematic trading strategy ideas and research.

All of the strategy ideas that Llewelyn publishes are quantifiable. This allows readers of the blog to verify the results and use the research as a building block for creating and testing their own trading strategies.

All of the research on the blog is carried out using Amibroker Charting Software and the US stock data provided by NorgatePremium.

Data is adjusted for splits and dividends and includes delisted stock data as well as historical index constituents.

Most of the blog posts will be from research that Llewelyn is doing for his own personal trading account, but sometimes ideas will come from trader magazines, other trader blogs, trader books, or academic journal articles about trading strategies.

Readers of the blog are also welcome to get in touch with Llewelyn  if they have their own ideas which they would like tested or researched further.

You are welcome to subscribe below to get exclusive access to future analysis, articles and trading strategy ideas.

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Hi, my name is Llewelyn, I have an academic background in Technical Analysis, I have worked for a Prop-Trading Firm (I learnt a lot but hated the hours!) and I now trade my own accounts using a variety of the mechanical trading models that I created during a Masters Degree in Business and Finance. – See more at: https://backtestwizard.com/about/#sthash.CUjRae9m.dpuf
Hi, my name is Llewelyn, I have an academic background in Technical Analysis, I have worked for a Prop-Trading Firm (I learnt a lot but hated the hours!) and I now trade my own accounts using a variety of the mechanical trading models that I created during a Masters Degree in Business and Finance. – See more at: https://backtestwizard.com/about/#sthash.CUjRae9m.dpuf

25 Comments

  • David Phillips

    Reply Reply April 30, 2014

    Llewellyn, I have watched your videos about downloading prices from Yahoo and setting up correlation matrix. Please tell me where I may download the Excel programs you discussed.

    My grandfather came here from Wales when he was 23 and lived to be 99. Our family toured Wales in 1952. The landscape looks a lot like the central part of Tennessee.

    Thank you very much.

    David Phillips
    Birmingham, Alabama, USA

    • Llewelyn

      Reply Reply April 30, 2014

      Hello David,

      The automatic yahoo price data downloader and correlation matrix can be downloaded as a single excel program by visiting the links given in my book.
      http://www.amazon.com/dp/B00IRR20V0/

      I would be happy to share the program for free – but I feel it would be unfair to those who have already purchased a copy of the book, in part for the free resources that I bundle with it. I hope that you understand.

      Best Regards,

      Llewelyn

    • Llewelyn

      Reply Reply April 30, 2014

      Hi again David,

      I have also sent you an E-mail.

  • Manuel Gabás

    Reply Reply June 26, 2014

    Hi Llewelyn,

    I have recently read your book and I have liked a lot. Congratulations!. Well you are no Shakespeare but I would say your writing is quite good.

    How can I send you an email?. I have not seen your mail address in the web page.

    Regards

    • Llewelyn

      Reply Reply June 26, 2014

      Hi Manuel,

      Many thanks for reading the book, I’m glad that you enjoyed it!

      You are always welcome to send me an e-mail @

      llewelynjames@hotmail.co.uk

  • John Smith

    Reply Reply November 24, 2014

    Hi Llewelyn,

    Can you please tell me how you created the ATR indicator in pro realtime? The books say set each envelope to be shown as a line but which envelope should be seen? Envelope+or Envelope-? I created at ATR with NBR of 20, envelope 1 (20, 150) envelope 2 (20, 250) and envelope 3 is (20, 600)

    Thank you

    • Llewelyn

      Reply Reply November 24, 2014

      Hi,

      You want to be able to see the +envelopes.

      Cheers,

      Llewelyn

  • Scott Jeppsen

    Reply Reply December 23, 2014

    I have another question Llewelyn. Short float is the term you use in your book, but that term is difficult to find outside of Finviz. I like to use multiple sites screen tools and I believe the more common term is short ratio or short interest ratio. Can you confirm if that is correct or not? I want to make sure I’m using the right criteria. If it is not right, can you tell me the more common term used for short float?

    Thanks a bunch!

    Scott

    • Llewelyn

      Reply Reply January 2, 2015

      Hi Scott,

      Short interest is the same as the percent of float short referenced by Finviz. Using AAPL as an example:

      In Finviz we can see that the short float is 0.92%

      Short interest is calculated as the number of shares shorted divided by the number of shares outstanding.

      In apples case, this would be (53.67M / 5.86B ) = 0.92%

      Regards,

      Llewelyn

  • Jason Hernandez

    Reply Reply February 23, 2015

    I set up the watch lists on finviz.com with the parameters you gave. Is it normal to have only 1 or 2 stocks that meet those criteria?

    • Llewelyn

      Reply Reply February 24, 2015

      Hi Jason,

      It’s normal for only one or two stocks to meet the criteria. If you would like a greater number of opportunities, relax some of the criteria. As I illustrate in the book, the technical rules are profitable all on their own.

      • Jason Hernandez

        Reply Reply February 25, 2015

        Ok great. Thanks.

  • Danny Herndon

    Reply Reply March 10, 2015

    For some reason I can’t get the video’s to play, when I click on them nothing happens.

    • Llewelyn

      Reply Reply March 10, 2015

      Hi Danny,

      I’ve just checked on my end and the videos are playing without issue. I’m using Internet Explorer.
      Sometimes there are browser specific issues so my advice would be to try playing the videos in a different browser. If you could let me know if that works for you I’d appreciate it.

      Regards,

      Llewelyn

  • Robert Kinnell

    Reply Reply March 16, 2015

    Hi llewelyn,

    Excellent book, I would just like to quote from above: “And it doesn’t matter if you start with $500 or $5,000 or $50,000…”, I would like to start with about £750 sterling. Would that be ok, Any have you any tips on a good cheap broker for UK citizens playing the /american stockmarkets.

    • Llewelyn

      Reply Reply March 25, 2015

      Hi Robert,

      Sorry for such a late reply to your question.

      The point that I was making in the above quote is that regardless of how much money that you have to trade, you should treat each trade equally and put as much thought into the trade as you would if trading $1,000,000 per position. I’ve seen too many people open an account with a few hundred bucks and because the dollar amounts seem so small they throw caution to the wind, lose all of the money, reload another few hundred bucks, throw caution to the wind, lose all of the money, and so on. If they’d treated that first few hundred bucks with as much care as they would have treated $1,000,000, they’d be far better off within a far quicker period of time.
      With that said, I’m not going to sugar-coat the fact that trading a smaller account successfully is a far harder thing to do. You will have great difficulty in getting any type of meaningful diversification and you’ll also find that commission drag will have more of an impact on your returns.
      With £750, you’re not going to be able to follow the rules in the book per se, but you’ll still be able to study and implement some of the key concepts that I wrote about. That might be as simple as buying the SPY ETF and using a trailing stop-loss to protect your-self if the market corrects. Or you might want to be more creative and buy some leveraged sector ETF breakouts. Or perhaps you’ll want to study the fundamentals of a little known Cyber-Security stock which has recently had a blow-out quarter.
      Whatever it might be, my advice is to be as thorough in your analysis as you would if trading a larger size account.
      As for a good cheap broker for UK citizens playing the US Stock market…I use Interactive Brokers and have had no problems with their support or coverage.

      I hope that helps somewhat,

      Best regards,

      Llewelyn

  • Nilesh

    Reply Reply March 28, 2015

    Hi Llewelyn,

    It seems that the member videos are no longer accessible? On logging in, the site redirects to the home page and not the members page. This used to work before.

    Sorry to post comment like this but I could not find a “contact me” page.

    • Llewelyn

      Reply Reply March 28, 2015

      Hi Nilesh,

      Thanks for pointing out this issue. I have spoken to my support staff and they appear to have fixed the issue. Would you please attempt to login from the following page and let me know if it works.

      https://backtestwizard.com/members-login-page/

      Kind regards,

      Llewelyn

      • Nilesh Peshawaria

        Reply Reply March 29, 2015

        Llewelyn, it now works. Thanks!

  • Micah

    Reply Reply April 24, 2015

    Hi Llewelyn,

    Thanks for the fantastic book. I have two quick questions about setting up the charts.

    1) I have been having a lot trouble with the ProRealTIme web app and Java file on OSX. Instead I found https://www.tradingview.com/chart/JOnAzG7x/. Do you know anything about this web app? Do you have any caveats about deviating from your recommended software?

    2) When I could get ProRealTime to work, I was having trouble finding where to set the MA period to weekly. Or perhaps I’m just misunderstanding the params?

    Thanks again,

    Micah

    • Llewelyn

      Reply Reply April 24, 2015

      Hi Micah,

      Whilst I can’t speak about TradingView from experience, there is absolutely nothing wrong with using different charting software to ProRealTime. As long as the software allows you to do what you want it to, it’s fine.

      Regarding the weekly MAs…If you change the chart periodicity from daily to weekly, the Moving Averages will automatically change to weekly as well. If using Amibroker, you can actually plot weekly indicators on a daily chart. To the best of my knowledge, ProRealTime does not have such a feature.

      Regards,

      Llewelyn

  • Mark Smith

    Reply Reply May 19, 2015

    Llewelyn,
    You win my “Truth in Advertising” award. You set out to deliver honest, actionable advice without the marketing hyperbole, and you delivered exactly that. I’m looking at a bookshelf of trading books accumulated over several decades, and dollar for dollar yours is absolutely the best value. Thank you for a worthy goal, and then achieving it for the benefit of others.

    I’m curious about a few things.
    1. What percentage of your investable funds are you able to keep working at any one time, using the strategies outlined in the book.
    2. If it’s well below 100%, are there other strategies not covered that you use to keep your funds working, or are you happy to have a substantial cash position if you don’t find just the trades you want?

    Mark

    • Llewelyn

      Reply Reply May 20, 2015

      Hi Mark,

      I really appreciate your kind words about the book and am most pleased that you think I achieved my goal.

      Regarding your questions…

      The strategies which I share in the book are a small component of my complete portfolio of strategies. My average exposure taking into account all of my strategies is about 80% of investable funds at any one time. Having said that, I am not opposed to having a larger cash position and if none of my systems are triggering any entry signals then I won’t go looking for opportunities just for the sake of being more fully invested.

      If I were to single out the strategies in the book and suppose that all of my investable funds were dedicated to just those strategies; There will be periods whereby the market environment filter prevents any new signals. During those periods I would be fully in cash.

      I am also able to dial up or down the amount of risk taken per trade which will also determine the percentage of funds which are working at any one time.

      Put simply, I recommend that people’s goal should be to have a portfolio of strategies which trade a portfolio of different markets. Preferably, the return streams of each strategy are individually profitable and perhaps just as importantly, have a low degree of correlation to one another. Once that goal is achieved, it is my opinion that the more fully invested that you are the better.

      Hope that helps,

      Llewelyn

  • Bernie

    Reply Reply May 29, 2015

    Hi, Llewelyn. I just finished your Stock Trading book and found it very helpful.

    How do you handle price changes resulting from dividend ex-dates? Do you adjust your triggers so they don’t kick you in/out of a trade? I did not see this mentioned in the book.

    Thanks for your help!

    • Llewelyn

      Reply Reply June 1, 2015

      Hi Bernie,

      I’m glad that you found the book helpful. You are correct that I adjust the triggers to account for dividends. Thankfully for me, the process of adjusting the data for dividends is carried out by my data provider (Norgate Premium). I hope that helps.

      Best regards,

      Llewelyn

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